← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, Nov 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
| Wolves win | 31% | 33% | 3.19 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fulham −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 19' | 🟨 | Tim Ream · Fulham |
| 22' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 33' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian · Fulham |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 88' | 🟨 | Carlos Vinícius · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 879.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1786.14 | 1782.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.72 | 17.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 15.25 | 16.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.61 | 27.22 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 180.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.68 |