← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 36% | 43% | 2.75 | value: +17% |
| Everton win | 36% | 34% | 2.68 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Man United +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Everton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 75' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 329.00 | 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1766.01 | 1923.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.30 | 14.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 15.06 | 15.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.90 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.22 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 44.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.27 |