← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 45% | 43% | 2.16 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 28% | 31% | 3.57 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Sheffield United +0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 22' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Sheffield United |
| 51' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 69' | 🟨 | George Baldock · Sheffield United |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 70' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 754.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1698.68 | 1712.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.14 | 9.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 13.04 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| season ppg | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -1.18 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 26.14 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 294.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.16 |