← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 37% | 30% | 2.63 | fair |
| Chelsea win | 36% | 43% | 2.76 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea +0 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Newcastle +0 | 50% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 50% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 50% | 2.15 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kieran Trippier · Newcastle |
| 23' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lesley Ugochukwu · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle |
| 55' | 🟨 | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 59' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle |
| 61' | ⚽ | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 73' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| Reece James · Chelsea |
| 73' | 🟥 | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 81' | 🟨 | Levi Colwill · Chelsea |
| 83' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 754.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1737.45 | 1650.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.59 | 34.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 12.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 1.62 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 25.46 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 400.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 2.46 |