← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 47% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Luton win | 24% | 26% | 4.12 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Crystal Palace +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 53% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 47% | 2.33 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tom Lockyer · Luton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Gabriel Osho · Luton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ross Barkley · Luton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Teden Mengi · Luton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Michael Olise · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Kaminski · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 389.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1688.80 | 1809.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.33 | -19.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -1.62 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.57 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 59.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.45 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 1.23 |