← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Brighton win | 76% | 78% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.23 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 9% | 10% | 12.00 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sheffield United −1.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Brighton −1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 75% | 1.51 | value: +13% |
| Under | 37% | 25% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |