← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 51% | 64% | 1.87 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.76 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 23% | 19% | 4.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sheffield United +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 2.01 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | George Baldock · Sheffield United |
| 49' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tommy Doyle · Wolves |
| 72' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Sheffield United |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fábio Silva · Wolves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · Sheffield United |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 733.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1680.98 | 1781.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.47 | 33.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.10 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -3.22 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 26.87 |
| state index | -1.28 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 97.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.43 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.20 |