← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 41% | 39% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +6% |
| Burnley win | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Odsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 521.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1746.81 | 1807.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.98 | -7.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.95 |
| solidity v1 | -1.79 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.77 |