← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 41% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
| Fulham win | 32% | 33% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Man United +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 44% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 56% | 2.10 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 66' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 88' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 856.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1801.82 | 1911.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.15 | -3.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 5.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.40 | 27.92 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 261.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.15 |