← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 60% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
| Man United win | 17% | 17% | 5.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United +1 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Man City +1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | André Onana · Man United |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Man United |
| 42' | 🟨 | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 49' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 80' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antony · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 515.00 | 2676.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1921.79 | 2145.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.27 | -18.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 7.85 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 1.25 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.61 |
| state index | 1.07 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 6.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.41 |