← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 78% | 74% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 17% | 7.31 | value: +22% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 8% | 9% | 12.08 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −1.75 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Nott'm Forest −1.75 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.87 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
| 31' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 33' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 35' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Liverpool |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 2411.00 | 788.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 2059.20 | 1754.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.12 | -0.85 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.22 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 26.92 |
| state index | 1.80 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 133.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.38 | 1.24 |