← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 72% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
| Luton win | 12% | 8% | 8.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Aston Villa −1.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 62% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa |
| 49' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 53' | 🟨 | Issa Kaboré · Luton |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Tom Lockyer · Aston Villa |
| 71' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Aston Villa |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Luton |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Emiliano Martínez · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 362.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.87 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1948.85 | 1688.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.16 | 2.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | -0.97 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.67 | 26.86 |
| state index | 2.06 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 121.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.37 |