← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 45% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +6% |
| Burnley win | 29% | 22% | 3.51 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burnley −0.25 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.87 | value: +7% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 22' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 56' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ameen Al-Dakhil · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 76' | ⚽ | Philip Billing · Bournemouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dango Ouattara · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 119.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1680.35 | 1757.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.20 | -33.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -2.11 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 24.49 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 340.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.39 | 2.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.95 |