← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 85% | 93% | 1.13 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 10% | 6% | 10.00 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 5% | 2% | 21.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −2.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Sheffield United −2.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Arsenal |
| 50' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Arsenal |
| 58' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Arsenal |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ben Osborn · Sheffield United |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Sheffield United |
| 87' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Fábio Vieira · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Takehiro Tomiyasu · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 300.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1827.09 | 1396.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.11 | -25.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | 1.17 | -2.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 25.99 |
| state index | 1.31 | -1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 221.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 2.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.93 |