← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 71% | 71% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.75 | value: +12% |
| Sheffield United win | 12% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +1.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Man United +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 55% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 45% | 2.83 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
| 37' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Sheffield United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Auston Trusty · Sheffield United |
| 62' | 🟨 | Vinícius Souza · Sheffield United |
| 77' | ⚽ | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 719.00 | 507.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1690.17 | 1916.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.82 | -28.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 14.21 | 14.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.13 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -3.40 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 27.65 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 55.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.12 |