← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 56% | 63% | 1.76 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 14% | 3.75 | fair |
| Luton win | 18% | 22% | 5.39 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 76' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Nott'm Forest |
| 82' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 83' | ⚽ | Chiedozie Ogbene · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 780.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1758.52 | 1685.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.82 | -6.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 27.33 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -1.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 126.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.25 |