← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 55% | 62% | 1.75 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.90 | fair |
| Burnley win | 20% | 19% | 5.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Burnley |
| 42' | 🟨 | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 46' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Ajer · Brentford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Frank Onyeka · Brentford |
| 62' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mathias Jensen · Brentford |
| 78' | 🟨 | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 78' | 🟥 | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gtech Community Stadium |
| Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 87' | ⚽ | Saman Ghoddos · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saman Ghoddos · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1846.00 | 507.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1863.53 | 1767.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.79 | -22.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 24.39 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 287.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.83 |