← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 59% | 68% | 1.63 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
| Brentford win | 19% | 13% | 5.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Man United −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 48% | 2.31 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Aaron Hickey · Brentford |
| 26' | ⚽ | Mathias Jensen · Brentford |
| 48' | 🟨 | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nathan Collins · Brentford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Neal Maupay · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 493.00 | 1832.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1908.99 | 1870.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.62 | -43.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 257.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.41 |