← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 64% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.56 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 14% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sheffield United −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 43% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 57% | 2.13 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Fulham |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Antonee Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 73' | 🟨 | Oliver McBurnie · Sheffield United |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Wesley Foderingham · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Norwood · Sheffield United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Willian · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 828.00 | 705.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1795.86 | 1698.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.62 | -27.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -13.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | -3.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.71 | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 227.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 2.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.91 |