← Premier League 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 3, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 36% | 35% | 2.69 | fair |
| Luton win | 33% | 47% | 2.95 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 31% | 18% | 3.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Luton +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.69 | value: +4% |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Luton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 59' | 🟨 | Reece Burke · Luton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 84' | ⚽ | Elijah Adebayo · Luton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Jacob Bruun Larsen · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvelous Nakamba · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tahith Chong · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 336.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1699.64 | 1776.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.40 | -43.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 24.79 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.74 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 243.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.88 |