← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 37% | 44% | 2.63 | value: +16% |
| Brentford win | 33% | 35% | 2.99 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 21% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Brentford +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Aaron Hickey · Brentford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 56' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 56' | 🟥 | Moussa Niakhaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | ⚽ | Christian Nørgaard · Brentford |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 88' | 🟨 | Frank Onyeka · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 760.00 | 1826.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1533.49 | 1659.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.33 | -27.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 171.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.87 |