← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 43% | 37% | 2.30 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 33% | 40% | 3.00 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Liverpool +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 62% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 38% | 3.22 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟥 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 36' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Tottenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 68' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 69' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 69' | 🟥 | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 87' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alejo Veliz · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Joël Matip · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 91.00 | 2382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.82 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1931.93 | 2064.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 48.42 | 36.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.58 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 1.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.70 | 27.63 |
| state index | 1.71 | 2.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 2.22 |