← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 62% | 68% | 1.57 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.39 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 16% | 11% | 6.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Newcastle +1 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +5% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 28' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 31' | ⚽ | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Sheffield United |
| 35' | ⚽ | Sven Botman · Newcastle |
| 56' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 61' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 68' | ⚽ | Miguel Almirón · Newcastle |
| 73' | ⚽ | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 75' | 🟨 | Anis Ben Slimane · Sheffield United |
| 87' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 22 |
| 1 | On target | 15 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| ⚽ |
| Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Egan · Sheffield United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 692.00 | 692.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1718.44 | 1942.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.66 | -8.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -2.08 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 27.65 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 178.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.32 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.67 |