← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 82% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 6% | 8% | 18.00 | value: +52% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −2 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Nott'm Forest −2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 72% | 1.51 | value: +8% |
| Under | 36% | 28% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 14' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 18' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Man City |
| 21' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 46' | 🟥 | Rodri · Man City |
| 46' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | 🟨 | Éderson · Man City |
| 58' | 🟨 | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| Divock Origi · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2640.00 | 752.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.43 |
| elo | 2171.25 | 1754.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.00 | 14.93 |
| eye test v1 | 2.11 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.71 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.46 | -1.15 |
| solidity v1 | 1.48 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 25.68 |
| state index | 2.51 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 93.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.53 | 1.05 |