← Premier League 2023-24 · Mon, Sep 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 45% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.51 | fair |
| Burnley win | 27% | 30% | 3.69 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Burnley −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +5% |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | James Trafford · Burnley |
| 32' | 🟨 | Orel Mangala · Nott'm Forest |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Nott'm Forest |
| 41' | ⚽ | Zeki Amdouni · Burnley |
| 61' | ⚽ | Callum Hudson-Odoi · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Connor Roberts · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 747.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1755.72 | 1790.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.45 | -26.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 16.20 | 16.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | -1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 24.65 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 2.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.81 |