← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 59% | 66% | 1.63 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.30 | fair |
| West Ham win | 18% | 13% | 5.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Man City +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · West Ham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joško Gvardiol · Man City |
| 46' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Man City |
| 76' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rodri · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 29 |
| 3 | On target | 15 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 1385.00 | 2633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1884.79 | 2164.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.14 | -0.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.20 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 2.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 26.77 |
| state index | 1.47 | 2.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.01 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 263.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 2.19 |