← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 57% | 59% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 13% | 4.46 | fair |
| Wolves win | 21% | 28% | 4.75 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Wolves +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 34% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 7' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Curtis Jones · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Hugo Bueno · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 46.00 | 2368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1753.57 | 2046.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.26 | 10.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 12.94 | 12.94 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 1.36 |
| solidity v1 | -2.15 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 26.78 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 108.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 2.35 |