← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 3, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 54% | 65% | 1.76 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Man United win | 22% | 13% | 4.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Man United −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 62% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 38% | 2.81 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 28' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 38' | 🟨 | Victor Lindelöf · Man United |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · Man United |
| 68' | 🟨 | André Onana · Man United |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 245.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1997.23 | 1944.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.52 | 7.01 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | 1.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.06 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.87 | 1.60 |
| solidity v1 | 1.52 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 27.33 |
| state index | 1.50 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 258.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 3.04 |