← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 48% | 58% | 2.04 | value: +19% |
| Burnley win | 26% | 23% | 3.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Tottenham +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 16' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 54' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Tottenham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 63' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 74' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| Jordan Beyer · Burnley |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hannes Delcroix · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 458.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1805.55 | 1909.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.25 | 21.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 1.24 |
| solidity v1 | -1.32 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 24.47 | 25.47 |
| state index | 0.58 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 283.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.39 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.53 | 1.81 |