← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 41% | 32% | 2.39 | fair |
| Sheffield United win | 31% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.42 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Everton +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Jarrad Branthwaite · Everton |
| 14' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Sheffield United |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Jordan Pickford · Sheffield United |
| 49' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United |
| 55' | ⚽ | Arnaut Danjuma · Everton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sheffield United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Bramall Lane |
| coach days | 670.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1723.99 | 1716.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.45 | -18.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.59 |
| league points | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 5.94 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.33 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 27.01 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 99.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.29 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.56 | 1.55 |