← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 70% | 75% | 1.38 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.30 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 11% | 11% | 8.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Man United −1.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 67% | 1.59 | value: +6% |
| Under | 39% | 33% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 4' | ⚽ | Willy Boly · Nott'm Forest |
| 17' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Man United |
| 44' | 🟨 | Serge Aurier · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | 🟨 | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 52' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 58' | 🟨 | Aaron Wan-Bissaka · Man United |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ola Aina · Nott'm Forest |
| 67' | 🟥 | Joe Worrall · Nott'm Forest |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| 🟨 |
| Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 89' | 🟨 | André Onana · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 451.00 | 724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1756.89 | 1527.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.12 | 28.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.61 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 29.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.80 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.34 | -1.91 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 26.09 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -2.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 96.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.76 | 0.98 |