← Premier League 2023-24 · Fri, Aug 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 76% | 66% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 6.25 | value: +17% |
| Luton win | 8% | 15% | 12.50 | value: +93% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Luton −1.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Chelsea −1.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand