← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Aug 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 52% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.92 | fair |
| Everton win | 23% | 17% | 4.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 18' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jordan Pickford · Everton |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 51' | ⚽ | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jhon Durán · Aston Villa |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nathan Patterson · Everton |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| 🟨 |
| Cameron Archer · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 292.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1668.60 | 1520.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.41 | 26.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 7.85 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 28.45 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -1.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 126.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.96 |