← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 36% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +10% |
| Fulham win | 34% | 33% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Fulham +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Over | 45% | 40% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Aaron Hickey · Brentford |
| 44' | ⚽ | Yoane Wissa · Brentford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Ream · Fulham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rico Henry · Brentford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Harrison Reed · Fulham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tim Ream · Fulham |
| 64' | 🟥 | Tim Ream · Fulham |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 779.00 | 1783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1820.07 | 1898.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.74 | 39.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.48 | 26.01 |
| state index | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 5.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.74 |