← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 58% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.20 | value: +16% |
| Aston Villa win | 19% | 20% | 5.29 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 6' | ⚽ | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 11' | ⚽ | Moussa Diaby · Aston Villa |
| 16' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sven Botman · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 48' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 53' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 58' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Newcastle |
| 67' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 13 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 77' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 649.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1738.78 | 1681.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.47 | 6.24 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 274.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.48 |