← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 64% | 81% | 1.53 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 9% | 4.87 | fair |
| Southampton win | 16% | 9% | 5.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Liverpool +1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.23 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
| 14' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 19' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Tsimikas · Liverpool |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Southampton |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Southampton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Harvey Elliott · Liverpool |
| 64' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 72' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo · Liverpool |
| 73' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 30 |
| 10 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 4 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 116.00 | 2257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1427.72 | 1826.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.87 | 14.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| league points | 24.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 1.37 |
| solidity v1 | -1.42 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 28.02 |
| state index | -1.57 | 1.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 300.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.83 |