← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leicester win | 47% | 38% | 2.11 | fair |
| West Ham win | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 36% | 4.01 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Leicester −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| West Ham −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 46% | 2.63 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand