← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 51% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Brighton win | 25% | 27% | 3.95 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Brighton −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 58% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 42% | 2.63 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 12' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · Brighton |
| 22' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 38' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · Brighton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 67' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 73' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo · Brighton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 208.00 |
| 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1672.55 | 1686.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.73 | -5.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| league points | 58.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 3.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.59 |
| solidity v1 | 1.08 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 24.99 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 221.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 2.08 |