← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Marriner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 73% | 63% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 6.28 | value: +22% |
| Wolves win | 10% | 18% | 10.00 | value: +78% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Arsenal −1.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Wolves −1.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 60% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand