← Premier League 2022-23 · Thu, May 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 62% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +13% |
| Chelsea win | 16% | 18% | 6.53 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Chelsea −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 45% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tyrell Malacia · Man United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 78' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 89' | ⚽ | João Félix · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 358.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1757.79 | 1623.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.86 | -17.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| league points | 69.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 4.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.93 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 26.36 |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.16 |