← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 80% | 73% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 18% | 8.00 | value: +45% |
| Southampton win | 7% | 9% | 13.50 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Southampton −2 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 62% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 38% | 3.43 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Evan Ferguson · Brighton |
| 34' | 🟨 | Carlos Alcaraz · Southampton |
| 40' | ⚽ | Evan Ferguson · Brighton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mohamed Elyounoussi · Southampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mohamed Elyounoussi · Southampton |
| 64' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 67' | 🟨 | James Bree · Southampton |
| 69' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 262.00 |
| 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.77 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1676.85 | 1432.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.00 | -25.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.77 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.53 |
| league points | 58.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.72 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.56 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 91.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 2.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 1.25 |