← Premier League 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 36% | 34% | 2.74 | fair |
| Leeds win | 36% | 26% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 40% | 3.56 | value: +43% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| West Ham +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 32' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · West Ham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rodrigo · Leeds |
| 88' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · Leeds |
| 90' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 1267.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1676.00 | 1494.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.79 | -17.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 2.73 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -1.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 271.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 2.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.31 |