← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Coote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 42% | 28% | 2.37 | fair |
| Wolves win | 31% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 41% | 3.58 | value: +48% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Everton +0.25 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.96 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Adama Traoré · Wolves |
| 34' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Wolves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Nunes · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Garner · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yerry Mina · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 200.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1564.68 | 1520.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.16 | 26.12 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -1.80 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.84 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 109.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 2.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.68 |