← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 15% | 21% | 6.50 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Liverpool −1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Aston Villa |
| 66' | 🟨 | Trent Alexander-Arnold · Liverpool |
| 77' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 89' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ezri Konsa · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days |
| 2249.00 |
| 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1832.30 | 1666.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.89 | -2.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.86 |
| league points | 65.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 27.90 |
| state index | 1.53 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 125.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.20 |