← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 41% | 27% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 41% | 3.30 | value: +34% |
| Crystal Palace win | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fulham −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 54% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 46% | 2.36 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Odsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days |
| 688.00 |
| 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1563.85 | 1599.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.61 | -4.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 51.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 12.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.06 |