← Premier League 2022-23 · Thu, May 18, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +21% |
| Brighton win | 23% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Newcastle −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 44% | 2.54 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (og) | Deniz Undav · Newcastle |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Deniz Undav · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 51' | ⚽ | Deniz Undav · Brighton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Brighton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 563.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 4.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1734.69 | 1689.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.38 | -0.94 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 66.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 5.29 | 4.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | 2.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 25.23 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 468.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.88 | 2.59 |