← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 69% | 72% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.39 | fair |
| Wolves win | 12% | 11% | 8.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Wolves −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 53% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 47% | 2.48 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Wolves |
| 32' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 36' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 88' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alejandro Garnacho · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 346.00 |
| 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1746.63 | 1570.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.64 | 21.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 63.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 27.74 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 97.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.91 |