← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 61% | 70% | 1.57 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.38 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 17% | 10% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1 | 52% | 1.96 |
| Chelsea −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 51' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 58' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 62' | ⚽ | Taiwo Awoniyi · Nott'm Forest |
| 69' | 🟨 | João Félix · Chelsea |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Chelsea |
| 79' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 83' | 🟨 | Renan Lodi · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 42.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1630.68 | 1498.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.07 | 15.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 42.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 28.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | -1.81 |
| solidity v1 | -0.79 | -2.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.12 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | -2.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 174.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 2.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.31 |