← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 43% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 31% | 37% | 3.20 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Tottenham −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jacob Ramsey · Aston Villa |
| 23' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 53' | 🟨 | Oliver Skipp · Tottenham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 73' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| coach days | 193.00 | 558.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1873.96 | 1896.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.99 | -30.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.88 | -1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.90 | 27.52 |
| state index | 1.26 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 160.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.73 |