← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 59% | 54% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.50 | value: +18% |
| Leeds win | 19% | 20% | 5.16 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds +1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Newcastle +1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 67% | 1.58 | value: +6% |
| Under | 38% | 33% | 2.53 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joel Robles · Leeds |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 72' | 🟨 | Callum Wilson · Newcastle |
| 79' | ⚽ | Rasmus Kristensen · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Bamford · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| Junior Firpo · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 12.00 | 558.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1489.72 | 1739.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.60 | -5.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -1.86 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 27.89 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 133.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.23 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 2.50 |